Earthquakes Shake the Future of Myanmar’s Civil War
By: Ty Tan
This isn’t the first time in U Than Win’s life that he’s lost everything. The first time, junta forces in Myanmar scorched and razed his hometown to the ground, forcing Than Win and his extended family of 15 to flee to the major city of Mandalay for safety. The second time came with a 7.7 magnitude earthquake, one that has killed thousands and caused widespread destruction. With homes destroyed, lives taken away, and livelihoods stolen, the future of the citizens of Myanmar looks grim. In the face of such melancholic moments, some want to save, and others want to exploit.
The Irawaddy, a leading Burmese newspaper, best explains the current situation in Myanmar. Before 2021, despite not being perfect, Burmese citizens enjoyed a degree of safety, stability and economic opportunity under what they felt was a democratically elected government. However, on February 1st, 2021, a military coup stole this steady life. A military junta, the Tatmadaw, led by military chief Min Aung Hlaing, arrested all of the nation’s civilian government leaders, ending democratic rule. Through their iron grip, the regime has openly killed 6,224 people, arrested 21,683 political prisoners, and displaced 3.5 million or more Burmese citizens. The widespread devastation caused by the junta is widely documented and condemned by the international community.
In Myanmar, Burmese citizens aren’t stepping down in the face of adversity. Currently, 135 ethnic resistance groups are operating in Myanmar, resisting and attacking the junta’s regional command centers. Since 2021, clashes between ethnic militias and the Tatmadaw has risen 67%. Many of these clashes are led by prominent groups, such as the Three Brotherhood Alliance—an alliance of the Arakan Army, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army—and the militias organized the National Unity Government’s (NUG’s) military arm, the People’s Defense Forces (PDF). The organization and armed resistance conducted by these groups is seen as heroic, taking at least 742 frontline outposts held by the Tatmadaw, surrounding the Tatmadaw in their last few strongholds.
Source: The NYT, April 20th, 2024
In recent months, the military junta of Myanmar has been put on the backfoot. However, the earthquake is dangerous turning out. The 7.7 magnitude earthquake sparked a renewed humanitarian crisis by destroying the infrastructure—homes, roads, pipelines—that got critical resources to Burmese civilians. In a sad twist of fate, this widespread devastation and the temporary ceasefire agreed upon has gotten the military junta to put down their arms. Reporting from the BBC on April 6th of 2025 found that the Tatmadaw had carried out at least 14 airstrikes since the ceasefire, attacking rebel strongholds and civilian areas near the Tatmadaw’s area of control. The junta’s work goes beyond attacking, as accusations from the UN state that Tatmadaw is preventing aid from passing through some checkpoints to civilian areas under their control. The Economist, through an article aptly titled “Myanmar’s junta takes advantage of a devastating earthquake”, the junta is trying to legitimize itself by playing a victim card, garnering international attention and aid. Given the opportunities to hobnob on the international stage, Min Aung Hlaing is attending multilateral meetings while directing funding toward the capital, Naypyidaw, despite not bearing the brunt of the suffering.
Thus, as the situation in Myanmar continues to evolve, the earthquakes in a nation already devastated by a civil war have proven deadly. With a new tool in their pocket, it’s guaranteed that the Tatmadaw continues to ruin the lives of Burmese citizens like U Than Win and his family.
